XC Skies Maps - Global Soaring Forecast Reports

Global Flight and Soaring Forecast Reports Database. Read more about this idea here

Title	Model	Parameter	Forecast Time	View	Description
Tibbets Mtn,WA Accuracy: Submitted by Stefan Mitrovich 2008-05-16 10:48:32 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	05/15/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	Based on an hour flight at midday: There was an inversion around 6000ft. No wind and climb rates of 1000fpm. It was fairly smooth in between thermals, most likely due to the lack of wind, but the pressure was high. The model appeared somewhat accurate for the day albeit a little bit high for top of usable lift, it was about 1000ft lower in reality.
cloudbase Accuracy: Submitted by Mark Dowsett 2008-05-14 11:53:07 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Base Height	05/13/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	base was 6500' which was attainable. Quite a ways off from predicted
winds Accuracy: Submitted by Mark Dowsett 2008-05-14 11:52:12 Flag as inappropriate	GFS		05/13/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	fairly accurate
lift Accuracy: Submitted by Mark Dowsett 2008-05-14 11:51:25 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Thermal Updraft Velocity	05/13/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	actual lift was 700fpm at times. most climbs were averaging around 400fpm...still a bit higher than you predicted
6400' msl Accuracy: Submitted by Mark Dowsett 2008-05-14 11:49:17 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	05/13/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	considerably more than the 4-5000 predicted
Test: Top Usable where S > S_AVG Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2008-05-05 20:27:50 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	05/05/2008 12 (UTC)	View Map	test
Heat Flux Test as S>S_AVG Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2008-05-05 20:22:52 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Surface Heat Flux	05/05/2008 12 (UTC)	View Map	from 06z 6 hour forecast
King Mountain Spring Epic Accuracy: Submitted by dave hanning 2008-05-05 14:37:22 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	05/04/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	King Mountain Launch at 12:30 altitude, wind speeds, location of lift, cloud cover, everything was extremely accurate. It made forecasting when to roll to king for the weekend knowable, before we were guessing. Thank You!! http://picasaweb.google.com/dave.hanning/AldoSTandem
RUC hit and miss Accuracy: Submitted by Scott Harding 2008-03-29 22:21:30 Flag as inappropriate	RUC	Top of Usable Lift	03/29/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	Top of usable lift was actually 4000-4300 ft. ASL. RUC model overdid usable lift and missed the strength of the winds aloft. Winds were stronger than RUC forecast by about 5-10mph overall under 4500 ft. ASL yet, interestingly, were correct for the launch.
Wind Speed and direction little missplaced Discussion on Observation Submitted by daniel velez 2008-01-21 13:47:56 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Elevation	01/21/2008 21 (UTC)	View Map	As I plotted the wind speed at 1800 mts, it should have shown the arrows just on the valleys. Instead it�s a little missplaced to the south-east. It looks promissing but a little off on the layer.
bta Accuracy: Submitted by [Anonymous] 2008-01-06 17:08:42 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	01/06/2008 15 (UTC)	View Map	bad conditions due to the strong winds
anning Accuracy: Submitted by mike fougere 2007-11-10 00:39:35 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Base Height	11/10/2007 06 (UTC)	View Map	Winds at altitude, thermal core strenght and cloudbase accurate.
Flew Mount Olympus - Top of lift accurate Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-10-31 21:42:34 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	10/31/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Launched at precisely this forecast time. All 4 pilots found the top of the lift to be 8000 ft on the western slopes of the Wasatch mountains. CLoudbase was accurate as well at 9-10K. The forecast was for 10K only over the highest terrain. A "treat" to fly so late in the season, October 31. Postfrontal day. Tomorrow will bring high pressure and an impossible inversion back to the valley.
Kunming Yunnan China Accuracy: Submitted by mike fougere 2007-10-26 09:28:17 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Base Height	10/28/2007 06 (UTC)	View Map	Wind speed , thermal height, cloudbase, was quite accurate. Humidity and vegitation seems good too. We just started flying after an unusual long monsoon season so I'LL KEEP POSTING.
First indications good accuracy Accuracy: Submitted by Mark Canvin 2007-10-13 18:00:00 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Sky Cloud Cover	10/13/2007 12 (UTC)	View Map	At a local level, your predictions for 50% cloud cover was exactly what happened today at this location, followed, as predicted by 100% cloud cover 3 hours later. Wind speed and direction was also accurate. Promising!
Draper to SLC, UT Flight Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-10-08 20:52:42 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	10/07/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Launched South Draper, UT (hills near Point of Mountain) at 3pm (21 UTC). Weak lift but managed to slowly climb to cloudbase. The cloudbase of 9-10K ft was very accurate over Steep mountain, with base at 11K over Lone Peak. Top of lift was 8,500 over the valley, and 11,000 deeper in the Wasatch. Landed at 6pm. Thermal strengths validated well, with max climbs of only 300 fpm.
Experimental XC Potential is out to lunch Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-10-04 10:26:20 Flag as inappropriate	RUC		10/04/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Looks like the selection criteria indicates that the western desert in Northern Utah is a likely good location to XC today. It couldn't be more wrong. We are in a huge pre-frontal wind event. The wind barbs here are at 12K ft. The reason this shows as a good area is because the winds are forecasted to be light near the surface, and the top of usable lift is forcasted to be just 2000 feet above the ground, thereby missing the strong winds. We'll have to seriously look at this selection criteria as well as considering to the usefulness of such a parameter still.
GFS Top of Usable Lift validating poorly for Day 2 of the Canungra Cup 2007 Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-10-01 11:11:02 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	10/01/2007 03 (UTC)	View Map	The GFS model is forecasting the boundary layer depth and general surface heat flux on the weak side for experienced conditions. See Michael Dufty's flight and report to compare the 1PM time period. http://paraglidingforum.com/modules.php?name=leonardo&op=show_flight&flightID=11501 Wind barbs on map are at the top of usable lift.
Buoyancy/Shear ratio showing large convergence zone Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-30 12:02:59 Flag as inappropriate	RUC		09/29/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Note the winds at the top of usable lift. There is a huge convergence event at the edge of a large cold front. Although the buoyancy to shear ratio indicates an area where thermals are likely not too broken to use, this sort of lift is likely not that fun to soar in. It might take a seasoned sailplane pilot to exploit a feature such as this, I can imagine. The turbulence associated to the edge of such a feature is extreme.
Cold front moving through northern Utah Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-29 12:50:10 Flag as inappropriate	RUC	Top of Usable Lift	09/29/2007 18 (UTC)	View Map	A nice observation of the top of usable lift and the wind speeds at that level. This was a violent frontal passage, producing the first measurable snow in norther Utah.
Thermal updraft forecasted well for Salt Lake City, UT Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-27 00:52:09 Flag as inappropriate	RUC	Thermal Updraft Velocity	09/26/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	The thermal updraft velocity was forecasted to be 400 to 500 feet per minute. Remember that this is the total updraft velocity. To arrive at the effective (net) velocity updraft, subtract the glider sink rate from this value. Typical gliders fly around 200-250 fpm down in still air depending on bank angle, performance, etc. So today, we experienced an average thermal updraft velocity of roughly 200 fpm. Near the surface (at launch levels) climb rates were as little as 10 to 50 fpm. I have the sunburn and a sore neck to prove it. :)
Olympus to the Point N Side, SLC, UT Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-27 00:46:03 Flag as inappropriate	RUC	Top of Usable Lift	09/26/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Flew Mt. Olympus today. Launched at roughly 4pm, an hour after this forecast. Found the top of the usable lift to be roughly 8300 feet against the west facing slopes. The lift diminished rapidly after that. 2 local pilots made it the 15 miles to the point of the mountain state park after "scratching" for nearly two hours along the course. The forecast validated fairly well, but the actual lift experienced was on the weak side. The stabilizing effect of the Great Salt Lake with a north flow tends to invalidate the local soaring forecasts this time of the year.
Top of usable lift validated well for SLC, UT Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-26 10:00:04 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/25/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Flew Olympus on Sept 25, 2007. Found the top of the lift against the west slopes of the Wasatch to be 10,500 ft. This seemed to agree well for the 3pm forecast.
High Pressure region forecasted for eastern Colorado Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-20 20:25:49 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/21/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Note the wind direction/rotation for the top of the lift.
Sky Cloud Cover Example Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-18 23:41:55 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Sky Cloud Cover	09/17/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Notice that the dark green indicates 90% to 100% cloud cover. Cloud cover is anything cloud from the top of the atmosphere to the ground. Sometimes high clouds will give false warnings about the extensiveness and thickness of clouds. Look at the Sky Cloud Cover (without high) parameter to compare what influence high clouds are having for a region.
Cumulus Cloud Depth Example Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-18 21:25:13 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Depth	09/17/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Looking at the Cumulus Cloud Depth parameter gives you an indication of just how deep clouds might develop for a given area. Where cloudbase is significantly lower than the absolute tops of the thermals, you might expect to see over-development of clouds in the area. Also note that this is simply the minimum cloud depth. Because the lapse rate changes once the air parcel is moist (dew point is reached) the actual cloud tops will likely be MUCH higher than is forecasted here.
Thermal Updraft Velocity Example Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-18 21:15:33 Flag as inappropriate	RUC	Thermal Updraft Velocity	09/17/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Note that the thermal updraft velocity is forecasted to be between 600 and 800 feet per minute. Subtract the sink rate of your glider (somewhere around 250 fpm) to arrive at 350 to 550 fpm average thermal strengths for the area. This is an average of the general thermal velocity. There will likely be much stronger lift and of course much lighter lift in the area as well.
Cloubase captured well in GFS for Utah today Accuracy: Submitted by RMHPA 2007-09-18 17:36:53 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Base Height	09/18/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	The cumulus cloudbase parameter seems to have captured the locations and height of clouds fairly accurately today. The SLC valley in particular seems to have base quite close.
Looking at Top of Usable Lift and Wind Barbs Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-18 03:23:47 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/17/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Example
High probability of rain in central Utah Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-15 11:53:39 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/15/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	The GFS model is so sure that it will rain, the Boundary Layer parameter has been modified to reflect this. At times, you will see 'holes' in the top of usable lift parameter. Forecasted precip is usually the cause.
Cumulus cloudbase and cloud depth captured well Accuracy: Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-14 20:12:42 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Cumulus Cloud Depth	09/14/2007 18 (UTC)	View Map	The GFS showed the cloudbase and minimum cloud depth to be very accurate today at noon.
GFS over estimates the top of lift for central California Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-13 20:05:26 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/13/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Notice that the top of the usable lift from Sacramento to Bakersfield is predicted to be around 4,000 to 5,000 feet MSL. This is usually not the case for the low central valley. The reason this occurs is due to a poorly resolved Boundary Layer in the GFS model output. If the height of the boundary layer is too high, the top of the lift is commonly over estimated. A better forecast map would be the RUC model version. Avoid using the GFS when looking at this area.
GFS often overstates top of lift in the Salt Lake valley Discussion on Observation Submitted by Chris Galli 2007-09-13 19:26:22 Flag as inappropriate	GFS	Top of Usable Lift	09/13/2007 21 (UTC)	View Map	Both the GFS and RUC models overstated the top of lift today for the Salt Lake valley and surrounding area. It is likely that when this happens, the soaring forecast for the terrain to the east is still quite accurate, but the valleys tend to be much more inverted due to the Great Salt Lake. This is why on stable valley days, heading only several miles to the east can provide substantially better soaring conditions.